In the Arctic, the war in Ukraine is reshuffling the cards. Understand everything on a map.

Delphine Papin, cartographer at the newspaper The world explain : “We found it interesting to change the scale, zoom out on the map of the conflict in Ukraine, rotate the globe and see what’s happening in the Arctic. We have chosen a polar projection, meaning the reader is above the North Pole and therefore sees the shores of the Arctic Ocean. This projection is interesting because it allows us to see at a glance the eight countries spanning the Arctic Circle, Canada, the United States, Denmark thanks to Greenland, Norway via the Svalbarde archipelago, Finland, Sweden, Iceland and of course Russia“.

The Kola Peninsula bordering Finland, barely mentioned in our geography books, is of strategic importance to the Russians. It is one of the areas that is ice free for part of the year. And here is the Russian port of Murmansk and the military headquarters in Severomorsk, commanding the Russian Arctic military fleet.

Of course, we are far from Ukraine. But Delphine Papin clarifies: “We now know that there was a transfer to Ukraine of numerous Russian ground forces stationed in the Kola Peninsula prior to February; which led to a significant weakening of these combat units, previously considered the most powerful in Russia in this Arctic region. In addition, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Norway’s application for NATO membership has strengthened NATO’s position in the region and in the Arctic Council..”

Despite the geopolitical tensions in the rest of the world, from the war in Iraq in 2003 to Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, the motto “big north – low tension” had to remain. We often speak of the Arctic exception when considering the relationship between the United States and Russia. But since the war in Ukraine, all permanent members except Russia have suspended meetings of the post-Cold War council that brings together all the countries in the Arctic Circle..”

The consequences of the growing tensions in the region are still difficult to assess. Since June 2022, the seven Western Arctic Council countries have resumed scientific work. But without Russia, cooperation with Russia is essential in a region that is warming three times faster than the global average, with global implications. Without Russia it will be difficult to collect scientific data. In order to easily reach the region, several routes can only be navigated with the help of Russian icebreakers.

Andrea Hunt

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