[En principe]we want a person in the north to have a voting weight similar to that of a person in the southemphasizes the political science PhD student Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault von Kedgwick.

The 49 Ridings of New Brunswick must have approximately 11,714 electors. This goal is called the electoral quotient (New window). This target can vary by plus or minus 15%.

Each constituency must therefore have between 9,960 and 13,470 eligible voters.

North of Miramichi only two ridings have more than the election quotient. In Tracadie-Sheila there are 11,950 voters (+2% difference in quotient). Then 12,137 people are registered in Baie-de-Miramichi-Neguac (+3%).

If we see that kind of demographics there, it could mean an electoral map with one constituency less than in the northsays Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault.

It shouldn’t be said that the North will inevitably lose a seat, the political scientist nuanced, since the northern constituencies respect the minimum.

Grows in southern NB

In the Shediac region and in the Fredericton region, two ridings contain more than the allowable gap of electors and must necessarily be shared.

Since the number of provincial seats must remain at 49, the independent committee cannot create a new constituency from scratch to respond to the overcrowding of the southern constituencies.

But the Saint-Jean-Lancaster and Moncton-Centre equestrian centers each have around 10,000 voters, which could give the commission some leeway, says Deschênes-Thériault.

Interest groups must have priority, according to another expert

But Denis Duval, a professor of political science at the University of Edmundston, thinks this debate shouldn’t be viewed under the scrutiny of a calculator.

According to him, the margin of 15% difference is there to be used. There are not many constituencies where changing the boundary is mandatory, there are only twohe clarifies.

He believes that it is not necessary to absolutely approach the electoral quotient. He believes that the demarcation must primarily serve to group the communities of interest together.

One of the basic principles is to achieve effective representation and therefore not shift the population left or right as we are tempted to reach the electoral quotient.

” Individuals are not pawns. »

By accepting some demographics in the first place to keep voters in a constituency that represents their community, moving a seat from north to south would be ill-advised, according to Denis Duval.

However, he recognizes that there is more than one school of thought and that previous reallocations have already favored constituency demographic balance with community representation.

In 2012, at the last new election, the permissible deviation limit from the electoral quotient was 5%.

The 15% we will definitely use it.

A major challenge for the Commission

Our challenge is still quite bigstarts the co-chair of the Commission for the delimitation of the constituencies Camille Thériault, on the demographics of the constituencies of Shediac and Dieppe.

” If we start making a difference, it will affect the entire province. »

With the Commission still holding consultations, he doesn’t get wet about the changes that could be made to the voting card.

However, he indicates that he intends to exploit the 15% margin. We’re definitely going to play with that, we’re not debating if there’s a region that’s going to have more or a region that’s going to have lesshe said.

After presenting a first revised map in December, the Commission will hold a second round of consultation.