ALMATY, Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan’s outgoing President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has been largely re-elected, according to polls on Sunday, at the head of Central Asia’s largest country, which has endured a black year between bloody riots and a ruthless clash of clans.

According to three election polls, Mr Tokayev won between 82.2% and 85.52% of the vote in this former Soviet republic, where 69.43% of the 12 million voters voted, according to the Electoral Commission’s first estimates.

Mr. Tokayev’s dolphin is the “against all” vote, receiving between 3.40% and 5.2% of the vote according to these polls.

“People have clearly expressed their trust in me and we have to justify it,” Tokayev said.

Rich in natural resources and at the crossroads of important trade routes, Kazakhstan descended into chaos in January when protests over high prices escalated into riots, only to be brutally crushed. Record: 238 dead.

The country remains traumatized by this crisis, and in a sign of ongoing tensions, authorities announced on Thursday that they had arrested seven supporters of an opponent in exile accused of plotting a “coup”.

This early election was a way for Mr. Tokayev, 69, to consolidate his power. This trained diplomat has morphed into a relentless leader this year, firing on rioters in January, arresting relatives of his predecessor and mentor Nursultan Nazarbayev, and then opposing Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“No Monopoly”

This election is part of the long tradition of pre-polling in Kazakhstan, like previous presidential elections: 71% of the vote for Mr. Tokayev in 2019 and 98% in 2015 for Mr. Nazarbayev.

Despite the overwhelming score and lack of competition, Tokayev said the campaign was “fair and open.”

In Astana and Almaty, the country’s two largest cities, AFP saw several voters taking photos of themselves outside polling stations, with many voters citing a “duty” to show the photo to their employer on Monday.

Fifteen people demonstrated in Almaty to demand free elections and were all arrested by police, AFP noted.

Despite the placards urging voters to “make their choice” for the next seven years, Mr Tokayev’s five opponents acted as stooges.

When Mr. Tokayev came to power in 2019 following the surprise resignation of the all-powerful Nazarbayev, he officially pledged to cut the umbilical cord on behalf of the January Crisis, after long being seen as his predecessor’s henchman.

“The main thing is that there is no monopoly on power,” Mr. Tokayev said after the vote.

But Mr. Nazarbayev, who led Kazakhstan for three decades, was the first to congratulate him on his re-election, “an undeniable testament to the people’s unwavering confidence in (its) reforms (…) and a commendation for his stance” during critical hours” for the country, with reference to January.

The presidential candidate had promoted his project aimed at creating a more democratic and less unequal “New Kazakhstan”. But economic difficulties remain, as do authoritarian reflexes.

And according to the International Monetary Fund, the social tensions that underlay the January demonstrations could flare up again.

“waste of time”

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Tokayev has been trying to strengthen ties with China, but also with Europe as a counterbalance to Russian influence.

In recent months he has received visits from Russian, Turkish and Chinese heads of state, as well as high-ranking European officials and even Pope Francis.

And promises of democratic opening and economic reforms resonate with voters.

Like Amina Aïtyanova, a 46-year-old professor who believes President Tokayev “managed the situation very well” after the January events.

But this election, which would usher in the era of “New Kazakhstan,” conveyed a feeling of déjà vu with a deserted political landscape, a facade of opposition and pressure from the authorities.

Enough to leave behind many disillusioned Kazakhs, like Alia Bokechova, a 19-year-old student in Astana. “It’s a waste of time, we already know who’s going to win,” she told AFP.

Before the election, international OSCE election observers regretted that their recommendations “regarding fundamental freedoms and the conditions for eligibility and registration of candidates” had “not been taken into account”.