New data from Statistics Canada’s 2021 Census shows that French continues to decline in both Canada and Quebec, while the number of people whose first official language is English in the province now surpasses one million speakers, an all-time high. Experts call for vigilance.

All indicators show that the weight of French in Quebec decreased between 2016 and 2021. In absolute terms, the number of speakers has increased, but this growth is less than that of the population as a whole.

The percentage of Quebec residents whose first language is French has fallen from 77.1% to 74.8% in five years. Those who primarily speak French at home have increased from 79% in 2016 to 77.5% in 2021. And the proportion of people speaking French as their first official language – an indicator that makes it possible to measure the place of French in public spaces – has fallen, standing at 82.2% in 2021, compared with 83.7% in 2016 .

Despite this, 93.7% of Quebecers say they can hold a conversation in French, down from 94.5% in 2016.

Across Canada, French as the first official language spoken rose from 22.2% in 2016 to 21.4% in 2021, while English grew 0.7%.

The census results show “trends are largely continuing in Canada,” commented Éric Caron-Malenfant, deputy director of Statistics Canada’s Center for Demography, during a presentation to the media on Wednesday morning.

A situation that worries demographics expert Marc Termote, who estimates the decline in French as significant. “I think unfortunately it confirms what I’ve been predicting for 40 years. But I didn’t think the drop would be so sharp,” says the University of Montreal associate professor. “There may be a chain phenomenon happening. »

When French is on the decline, English and other languages ​​in particular benefit: According to Statistics Canada, a growing number of Canadians speak a language other than French or English at home.

“These people make up 12.7% of Canada’s population, a proportion that has been growing for 30 years — 7.7% in 1991, when immigration was rising,” the report said.

Jean-Pierre Corbeil, Associate Professor in the Department of Sociology at Laval University, notes that Canada has received a significant number of temporary immigrants, such as students or those with work permits. In addition to their mother tongue, they speak English rather than French. “In Quebec, immigrants continue to look to French more than English,” he notes. The challenge is to see if temporary immigrants, who then become permanent immigrants, will learn and master French.”

“What’s important is the language used in public spaces as well as in shops,” he adds.

English on the rise in Quebec

In Quebec, the proportion of people who speak English as their first official language will increase from 12.0% in 2016 to 13.0% in 2021, passing the one million speaker milestone. Of these, more than 7 out of 10 were in Montreal or Montérégie.

A circumstance that Statistics Canada explains in particular with “migration factors”. “We know that the number of non-permanent residents who settled in Quebec increased between 2016 and 2021,” says Éric Caron-Malenfant. He adds that there is less migration to other provinces. “We know that people who left Quebec probably speak English,” he says.

The federal agency will have a more complete picture of the situation in October when data on inter-provincial immigration and migration is released.

For his part, Jean-Pierre Corbeil believes that the growth of Quebec’s monolingual English population could result in English being used at the expense of French. “Here we must remain vigilant in order to better understand the factors and to consider measures to stimulate and promote the learning of the French language,” he says.

But that’s not enough, according to Marc Termote. He notes that French is the first official language in Montreal, spoken by 58.4% of the population, versus 2.4%, meaning it has “reached a certain threshold”.

“We shouldn’t burden allophone immigrants with that,” he warns. “Immigration certainly plays a role, but a minor one. The fundamental factor behind the decline in French is the fertility behavior of the Francophones, who do not have children. »

“There is no problem in the regions,” he adds. “But in Montreal, island francophones have had an average of 1.2 children over the past twenty years. It would take 2.1. One might hope to attract a few people among the allophones who could switch to French, but that does not make up for the enormous birth deficit. »

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