While Quebec accounted for nearly a quarter of Canada’s population in 1996, Statistics Canada predicts that by the turn of the 2040s the province should make up just a fifth of the federation.

Demographic projections released by the federal agency on Monday suggested that Quebec’s weight would fall below the 20 percent mark in a “medium growth” scenario and reach 19.8 percent by 2043.

This scenario could materialize even if Quebec plans to add nearly a million people, with a population of 9.4 million in 2043 compared to an estimated 8.6 million in 2021.

In the 1996 census following the second referendum on Quebec’s independence, the province’s demographic weight was still 24.75%, while in 1966 it was 28.9%.

Under the same scenario, Canada as a whole, including Quebec, should reach 47,757 million people, which would add almost 10 million people in 20 years.

“With the exception of Prince Edward Island, the provinces east of Ontario are growing below the national average, while the Prairie provinces are growing above the national average in almost all scenarios,” the agency said.

Immigration is the key factor driving Canada’s population growth, Statistics Canada pointed out, given the low coast-to-coast fertility rate, which has even been declining in recent years.

That trend isn’t new: It’s been the case since the early 1990s, Statistics Canada said.

Quebec’s weight loss in the Federation is primarily explained by lower immigration thresholds than elsewhere in the country relative to its total population.

The decline in Quebec’s weight in the Canadian federation has both political and linguistic implications: on the one hand, Elections Canada’s proposed electoral redistribution suggests a relative decline in Quebec’s representation in the House of Commons, and on the other hand, the 2021 census revealed last week that the French language was declining on all of her vitality markers.