The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart on Friday as investors backed bets on another rate hike by the Bank of Canada after national data showed retail sales rose less-than-expected in May.
Canadian retail sales rose 0.2% in May, beating estimates of a 0.5% increase. They were likely unchanged in June, suggesting slowing economic growth that would allow the BoC to leave interest rates unchanged.
Money markets see a 23% chance that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates in September, up from around 30% before the data was released.
“Today’s May retail sales report set the tone,” said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
“The continued outperformance of Canadian bonds versus US bonds in the 2-year and 10-year sectors weighed on the CAD, as did broad-based USD strength towards the end of the week.”
The US dollar rose against a basket of major currencies as a Reuters report that the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain yield control policies next week weighed on the yen.
The Canadian dollar traded 0.3% lower at 1.3207 the greenback or 75.72 US cents after trading in a range of 1.3154 to 1.3226. For the week, the currency gained 0.1%.
The Canadian Pacific Dockworkers’ Union said it has reached a new tentative agreement with employers and its leaders will vote on Friday to submit the agreement to members for ratification. Ratification would reduce uncertainty for Canada’s export-oriented economy.
Oil is one of Canada’s most important export products. It was $77.07 a barrel, up 1.9%, while the Canadian 10-year government bond yield fell 8.1 basis points to 3.417%.
It traded 5.9 basis points higher than its US counterpart with a spread of 41.5 basis points. (Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Grant McCool)
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