Francois La Rochelle

Former Canadian Diplomat and Fellow at the Institute of International Studies of Montreal (UQAM)

However, he added that Russia should first be prosecuted for war crimes. He also wants Russia to lose its seat on the Security Council. The Russian Embassy at the UN quickly rejected these proposals.

Given the current intensity of the conflict, they appear unrealistic at first glance. But no other international organization is better suited than the United Nations to try to bring the parties to the negotiating table. The UN is already involved on many levels in Ukraine through its agencies: humanitarian aid, refugee protection, securing Ukrainian nuclear power plants.

In addition, a few months ago, the Secretary-General of the United Nations obtained an agreement that allowed Ukrainian wheat exports and thus averted a food crisis in many countries.

At this point, the end of the fighting is hard to imagine as the belligerents say they are confident of ultimate victory.

Russian President Vladimir Putin needs military reinforcements as his campaign to take Kiev and overthrow the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy fails. Ukrainians are motivated and receive generous support from much of the international community. They have proven to be formidable fighters and are gradually gaining ground. They hope for total conquest, including Crimea.

Barring an unlikely collapse of the Russian or Ukrainian forces, the fatigue of the armies and the population, as well as economic difficulties, should nonetheless someday make them want negotiations. Their respective allies will undoubtedly play an incentive role.

The road to negotiations promises to be long and complicated. Territorial issues, war reparations and abuses of humanitarian law and war will be the main themes.

European security must also be on the agenda. As well as the political and economic sanctions imposed by many countries against Russia.

The role of the UN

The United Nations has the necessary experience, credibility and neutrality to promote and implement an eventual peace process.

The main problem is Russia’s presence in the Security Council, which, using its veto power, can block any resolution or approach it deems unacceptable. China could do the same. It will therefore be necessary to involve various actors from the international community.

One can imagine that a peace settlement might first involve establishing and maintaining a ceasefire, organizing referendums, creating demilitarized zones, if not even establishing peacekeeping forces. Some of these measures could fall under the UN with Moscow’s approval, others under a willing coalition of countries. Ukraine wants NATO members.

There is already a useful example provided by the Multinational Force and Observers (OFM in English), reviewing the application of the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt in Sinai. It is not a UN, but consists of a group of countries accepted by both parties, including Canada.

The question of ending political and economic sanctions against Moscow will be a matter for the countries that imposed them within the framework of the G7 or the European Union.

examples from the past

The UN has already managed the long mandate of a commission to compensate for damage caused by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invasion of Kuwait in 1990. It is a sum of $50 billion that Kuwait has reclaimed. A model of reconciliation that we could draw inspiration from in the case of Russia.

Apparently, the European Union is already working on creating a special court for war crimes. Russia will, of course, do everything possible to prevent the United Nations from becoming involved in this matter.

The Vienna-based Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), an expert on human rights issues, election monitoring and arms control, should also be involved in a post-conflict situation.

Diplomats can show ingenuity and their political leaders can show realism when it comes time to end a major and dangerous conflict for international stability.

After the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956, Canadian statesman Lester B. Pearson launched an original initiative with the first United Nations peacekeeping forces. He proved that peace and the means to maintain it are possible, even when the challenge seems immense.

The parties to the conflict must first agree on negotiations. Unfortunately, this is not the case yet, but this deadline is inevitable. We need to prepare for that, and that includes our government in Ottawa.