The provinces have certainly escaped Justin Trudeau’s initial desire to impose national standards on them, but they are far from achieving what they wanted most.

Behind the high figures that they had presented in the negotiations, the prime ministers of the federal states wanted to be certain that the federal government would increase its contribution to health spending in the long term. The aim was to ensure stable long-term financing free from political fluctuations.

However, despite the planned increase in the Canada Health Transfer (CHT), there is no guarantee that the weight of the federal contribution to health care spending will be permanently increased.

In fact, the federal proposal does not actually provide for a change in the annual indexation formula for the TKS. The calculation basis remains the same, only a minimum indexation of 5% is guaranteed for the next five years. This minimum threshold is reached by adding ad hoc amounts that are not taken into account when calculating the indexation in the following year, except in the fifth year.

After five years, we’re going back to the current calculation formula, which only guarantees a minimum annual transfer increase of 3%. However, there is nothing to suggest that the annual growth rate of healthcare spending there will slow down.

At the briefing for journalists, a senior official pointed out that the prime ministers’ calculations were made before the pandemic, and that a lot has changed since then. That’s no doubt true of federal finances, but it’s hard to see how a virus that has stretched health care systems nationwide could have reduced provincial demands.

Temporary Contracts

In addition to the reinforcement of TKS, the federal government is also proposing to distribute $25 billion to the provinces over a 10-year period under bilateral agreements. This money can be used differently from province to province depending on priority. The problem is that this sum is not integrated into the TKS. After the 10-year agreement has expired, there is no guarantee that these amounts will be renewed.

In other words, the provinces that offer new services thanks to this money could have to finance them themselves after the agreement expires. To avoid this, the then-ruling federal government must agree to renew these sums…enough to allow federal parties to make new commitments in this area of ​​state jurisdiction in the country. upcoming elections.

The federal proposal provides for another innovation. As a rule, federal health services are paid to the states in proportion to their population. However, those who have scrutinized the federal numbers have found that Quebec will receive 37 of the pledged 196 billion over the next 10 years. This is 19% of the announced amount, while Quebec represents 22% of Canada’s population.

The difference is due to the fact that minimum amounts are provided for the smallest provinces within the framework of the bilateral agreements. However, we did not take into account the varying rate of population aging in each province, which could have benefited Quebec.

Which suites?

Justin Trudeau called work meeting his meeting with his counterparts, but given the short time he has devoted to them, one gets the impression that the Canadian prime minister was content to reveal the content of his offer to his counterparts, without giving them much time to learn more demand.

By François Legault’s own admission, the federal proposal has all the semblance ofquite a last offer and Justin Trudeau said nothing in a press conference to suggest otherwise. Provincial ministers promise to study the proposal on the table and meet again in the coming weeks to decide what to do next. However, judging by their initial reaction, some of them seem to have already resigned themselves to signing. The goal of long-term sustainability will wait.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford described the pledged funds as a down payment in talks set to continue over the next few years. Obviously, the federal proposal doesn’t seem to have solved anything. The provinces will come back to the charges well before the deal under investigation expires in 10 years.