With teams and fans having access to more information than ever before, the question is, is the “underrated” or “under the radar” player in danger of extinction in the National Hockey League? Perhaps. But even in 2024, the Montreal Canadiens can boast of having one in their ranks.

“Compared to two or three years ago, there really aren’t many hole cards left in the entire league. The teams have become smarter and the error rate is lower. One guy who could still fall into this category is Rafael Harvey-Pinard.

These words come from Jack, a mysterious expert in advanced statistics who has gained great influence on social networks. By creating relatively easy-to-understand player cards, he helped popularize advanced statistics to the general public. It’s a little thanks to Jack – “JFresh” on X – that we no longer have many “underrated” players to introduce to the reasonably informed hockey fan. It may also be a little his fault if you find it increasingly difficult to hand your friend Marcel a Christmas tree in your apartment Swimming pool simulated.

However, across the league, Harvey-Pinard remains an overlooked player.

“If you ask people across the NHL, they’ll tell you it’s a 13th-ranked forward or an American League player,” notes Jack, who agreed to speak to TVASports.ca by declining to comment. to reveal his full name.

While small forward and seventh-round pick Harvey-Pinard isn’t a name that strikes fear into the big leagues, his player card is incredible.

In a small sample of 34 games in 2022-2023, the Jonquiérois had an impact on the Canadiens that goes well beyond his 20 points, including 14 goals.

In the 96th percentile

Jack’s cards essentially measure a player’s influence on a team’s scoring chances (for and against), or more specifically, the “expected” scoring rate (again, for and against). “Expected goals” is simply the number of goals that can be statistically predicted based on the probabilities of each shot scored on the ice.

Based on his contributions last season, Harvey-Pinard’s overall grade puts him in the 96th percentile in the NHL. Not less.

“When the Canadiens paired him with Nick Suzuki on the front line, the advanced stats of that unit improved significantly. The problem with Suzuki and Cole Caufield was that they allowed a lot of scoring chances. When Suzuki started playing with Harvey-Pinard, he was much better defensively.

Canadiens fans will remember “RHP” for his season-ending 14 goals for the big club, but defensively his impact was even more pronounced, according to advanced stats. In terms of impact on defensive play at even strength, he ranks in the very exclusive 98th percentile of Bettman.

“Often a little-known player who excels does so in a deep role, within a fourth line,” notes Jack. But Harvey-Pinard played difficult minutes in the first session. He met excellent players.”

To better understand the meaning of the numbers, Jack likes to try to contrast them with his own observations.

“Why is Harvey-Pinard so effective defensively? That’s not necessarily because of what he does in his area, he explains. Harvey-Pinard works tirelessly on the forecheck, he fights hard in the corners of the ice. He spends a lot of time in the offensive area and that in itself is the best way to defend.”

In terms of placement, Harvey-Pinard was in the 92nd percentile for the circuit. However, it will be very difficult to maintain his shot success rate.

“It will probably go down,” predicts Jack. But for now we have to admit that his card is impressive.”

Please note that Jack is not the only one praising Harvey-Pinard in the numbers community: experts on the subject at The Athletic recently profiled him as such “One of the most effective CH players in both directions of the ice last season”. In short, the calculator likes “RHP”.

Harris too

If he had to turn to another member of the CH whose true value is not appreciated, Jack would choose Jordan Harris.

“Kaiden Guhle or Arber

In all of his work, Harris ranks in the 88th percentile in the NHL, but his greatest impact is on the penalty kill, where he scores in the 96th percentile.

“He scored penalties and got the game going in the right direction,” Jack said. It’s a card that makes me say, “Okay, here’s a player who could become a gem (hidden gem) for defense.””