The author is an associate researcher at the Raoul Dandurand Chair, where his work focuses on the study and analysis of American politics.

I published last May a text which portrayed the electoral landscape six months before the midterm elections in the United States.

The text concluded: “Six months can represent an eternity in politics. The fact remains, for now, the prognosis is adamant: Republicans ahead in both houses of Congress. »

These six months have passed and they have been eventful to say the least: historic and controversial ruling annulling the Supreme Court’s recognition of the right to abortion; alarming insurgent inquiry committee hearings on Capitol Hill, followed by an equally dramatic search of the private residence of a former (and possibly future) president; controversies and scandals Splash some of the contenders in the country’s most important races.

The end of the summer was even the scene of a sharp increase in Democrat voting intentions, giving them hope for some gains in November despite the strong trend.

But despite all these distractions, just a few days before November 8, the observation from six months ago still applies: the Republicans must be the favorites for the majority – and that in both chambers of Congress. The main factors underlying this projection have not changed in all this time.

First, the party of the incumbent president at the time of the midterm elections, whether Democratic or Republican, will almost certainly see a correction during this general election. Only presidents who enjoy popularity fueled by extraordinary events, such as John F. Kennedy after the Cuban Missile Crisis or George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks, have avoided this humiliation.

And the current president, Joe Biden, is not particularly popular. According to Gallup, which measures the approval rating of every US president since Harry Truman, Biden puts this forward lowest rate in half a century – even a few dusts less than Donald Trump’s at the time.

And then the top priority of the American electorate remains the same as before six monthseven a year : the economy! In particular and above all, inflation (8.2% in September vs. 6.9% in Canada) hitting American households. This problem particularly hurts the ruling party, which is responsible for the crisis, or at least unable to contain it.

The fact that Republicans, for their part, have offered very few concrete solutions — other than endorsing increased production of hydrocarbons in the United States — doesn’t change much in a context where voters are primarily assessing the party’s record, the governs the White House and both chambers of Congress for two years.

Democrats persuaded each other that the abortion issue had a transcendent power that would permanently change the course of the campaign, while facts and empirical data, if one bothered to delve, suggested no such scenario. Even as Democrats acknowledged her late-summer comeback, the argument that abortion was to blame was dubious—as I wrote. here early September.

And we end up with this title on the front page of the New York Times two weeks before the vote: “Change of subject, the Democrats put the economy first”. Too little too late.

In the room Representative

A surprise is always possible, but the outcome seems to be sealed in the House of Representatives. At best, Democrats can salvage enough furniture on November 8 to win over an imposing minority with hopes of regaining the majority…in 2024.

Republicans need just five wins on Tuesday to secure control of the House of Representatives. Now they could easily make at least a 10, which would be arguably the best-case scenario for the Democrats.

Considering the Senate is currently split 50-50, with the majority being decided by Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Republicans need to make a single net win to keep the Senate in a stranglehold.

In other words, of the five seats that will be hotly contested, the Democrats must win at least four to retain their majority.

It will certainly be possible… but difficult.

The chart above paints a fairly simple picture of the challenge facing Democrats. Even in a more favorable electoral context, none of these seats but one had been won by more than three percentage points. With one exception, Joe Biden had not won the 2020 presidential election by more than three points in any of these states. In none of these states does his approval rating exceed 45% today; in fact, in at least two of them it does not exceed 40%. And in none of these states do the Democratic candidates currently have a comfortable lead… Especially since pollsters have underestimated Republican votes during recent election cycles, while the current context favors that camp.

There is real uncertainty. as I wrote here last week, pollsters may not strike this time. Perhaps the Democratic candidates will manage to distance themselves from their unpopular president. And perhaps with such close races, the Democrats can snag just enough votes here and there to salvage their majority.

All of these things are entirely possible. Still, the law of probability is inexorable: Republicans have the advantage in both houses.