With some ridings the race seems to be won beforehand, with others it could become the scene of heated fights. (Photo: The Canadian Press)
Quebec’s elections will be held in 125 sessions. For some of them the race seems already won, others could become the scene of heated battles. Overview of these constituencies up to the evening of October 3rd.
Beauce South and Beauce North
Races between the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) could emerge in these two Chaudière-Appalaches races.
The PCQ is hoping for a breakthrough in Beauce-South and Beauce-North, while the Éric Duhaime-led party currently ranks second in voting intentions in Greater Quebec City.
Impeaching the outgoing Caquiste MPs doesn’t seem like an easy task given the results of the 2018 election. In Beauce-Nord, Luc Provençal won 66% of the votes in the 2018 elections. Olivier Dumais, Mayor of Saint-Lambert-de-Lauzon, who will wear the colors of the PCQ.
In Beauce-Sud, Samuel Poulin had won that seat by collecting more than 13,000 majority votes. His conservative opponent will be Jonathan Poulin, a young lawyer in his 30s.
In these two constituencies, the Quebec125 election projection site places the PCQ second in terms of voting intentions, not far behind François Legault’s party.
The Parti Québécois (PQ) won this Gaspésie riding with ease. But the battle could get closer than the previous election. According to Quebec’s website125, CAQ and PQ follow each other closely in Bonaventure.
It must be said that the CAQ has benefited from an opening with the departure of outgoing MP Sylvain Roy. After leaving the PQ in 2021 to run as an independent, he announced this summer that he would not seek a fourth term.
It is former journalist Alexis Deschênes, now a lawyer, who this time wears the colors of the sovereign formation in Bonaventure.
For its part, François Legault’s party will present Catherine Blouin, communications consultant and project manager at CISSS de la Gaspésie.
Bourget (Camille Laurin)
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is in the running. He wants to get into Parliament by winning this ride in East Montreal Island, which is already considered a PQ Castle.
Bourget, who will become Camille-Laurin when the campaign begins, joined the Caquistes in 2018. Richard Campeau won a majority of 500 votes against outgoing MP Maka Kotto. The Quebec125 site believes the CAQ could retain the constituency represented by the “father of Law 101,” Camille Laurin.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon claimed that his decision to seek the votes on the island of Montreal should send an important message from his party in the fight to protect the French language in Quebec, which is passing through the metropolis.
Like the PQ leader, PCQ leader Eric Duhaime will seek a seat in the National Assembly. He runs in Chauveau, a Quebec region horseback riding held by Caquiste Sylvain Lévesque.
The latter had won the seat in 2018 with more than 9,000 majority votes. But the advance of the conservatives in the Capitale-Nationale could, depending on the election intentions, shake this comfortable lead. The Québec125 website also predicts that the PCQ could follow the CAQ.
The Parti Québécois has held this race on the Côte-Nord since 1976, but the Coalition avenir Québec hopes to win that seat. The race between PQ and CAQ in October 2018 was tight.
Outgoing MP Lorraine Richard was elected by more than 125 votes. That winter, Ms Richard announced she was leaving politics after 19 years in the National Assembly.
The Caquistes chose businesswoman Kateri Champagne-Jourdain, originally from the Innu community of Uashat Mak Mani-utenam, to collect voters. His PQ opponent is Marilou Vanier, director of the Creneau d’Excellence Resources, Sciences and Marine Technologies for the North Shore.
By just 15 votes more than his Liberal rival, PQ Joël Arseneau was declared the winner in October 2018. The CAQ finished fourth and last with almost 10% of the vote.
Four years later, the ruling party believes it has a chance of winning the constituency. To achieve this, the CAQ relies on the mayor of the Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Jonathan Lapierre, who has been elected mayor three times. Mr Arseneau will try to get a second mandate.
Voters are entitled to a rematch between outgoing Quebec Solidaire (QS) member Sol Zanetti and CAQ candidate Christiane Gamache.
Like the October 1, 2018 results, the next race could be just as close, according to Québec125’s latest predictions.
Mr. Zanetti had won the riding in Quebec by nearly 700 majority votes.
The one who has represented this riding of Lanaudière for 14 years will not be back in the ranks of the Parti Québécois. Véronique Hivon was re-elected in 2018 with more than 4,400 votes in advance.
Can the PQ repeat these results on the evening of October 3rd? The Québec125 website suggests that this PQ stronghold is contested by the CAQ.
The Caquiste François St-Louis, who had ended up behind Ms. Hivon in the last elections, will try to block the path to the PQ that Véronique Venne presents to him, hoping to keep Joliette.
Laval des Rapides
Laval is one of the regions where the CAQ could gain at the expense of the Liberals. Laval-des-Rapides, an equestrian arena in the south of Île Jésus, is one of those that can change color on October 3rd.
Outgoing MP Saul Polo, who is running for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), had received just 271 majority votes over his CAQ opponent in 2018.
The CAQ counts on Céline Haytayan, Manager of International Corporate Affairs at Ubisoft.
The Caquistes and Solidarity strive to please this Northeast Montreal riding to the PLQ. Marie Montpetit was re-elected four years ago with a majority of 530 votes. QS finished just behind while CAQ finished third.
The outgoing MP, who sat as an independent after being disowned by her party leader, has decided to leave the political arena.
The CAQ has announced a female candidate, Audrey Murray, a lawyer by training. Québec Solidaire will be counting on Haroun Bouazzi, an employee of the Business Development Bank of Canada, to lead the fight.
The PLQ is represented by Jonathan Marleau, a director in a financial institution.
Harold Lebel was re-elected to a second term under the PQ banner by a large majority in 2018. After being expelled from the party, he announced this winter that he would not run again in the next election because of litigation against charges of sexual assault.
His departure will be seen by Québec solidaire and the CAQ as an opportunity to conquer this PQ castle. The Québec125 website also places Rimouski as a constituency eligible to switch to the Caquistes.
The CAQ has as candidate Maïté Blanchette Vézina, former mayor of Sainte-Luce, while the PQ is represented by Samuel Ouellet, former political attaché of Mr Lebel but also owner of a local newspaper. Carol-Ann Kack, a psychopedagogue in adult education, is returning to the Solidarity after a first attempt at the last federal election.
In 2018, against all odds, Québec Solidaire made a breakthrough in the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region. Incumbent Émilise Lessard-Therrien will try to keep Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue. Solidarność won by just over 500 majority votes ahead of the CAQ candidate.
In recent months, the town of Rouyn-Noranda, which is part of the riding, has made headlines about arsenic emissions into the air from the Horne hut. The Legault government was on the defensive on the matter.
At the end of July, the CAQ announced the candidacy of Claude Thibault, who resigned a few days later for personal reasons. The candidate chosen is ultimately Daniel Bernard, councilor in Rouyn-Noranda and former Liberal MP from 2003 to 2007.
In the past, the PQ and the Liberals took turns in Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue.
QS MP Christine Labrie was elected in 2018 by a majority of more than 3,400 votes. This comfortable victory does not prevent the CAQ from hoping to conquer this equestrian sport in the Estrie capital. François Legault’s party is also counting on the victory of a star candidacy. It is former Mayor of Longueuil and political commentator at LCN, Caroline St-Hilaire, who will lead the fight in CAQ colors.
According to site Quebec125, a heated battle is brewing between QS and CAQ.
In the last general election, the CAQ candidate came third with almost 24% of the vote.
François Legault does not hide his ambitions to conquer certain traditionally liberal territories in the metropolis. Verdun, a western Montreal neighborhood, is one of them.
For the CAQ, a local councillor, Véronique Tremblay, will seek to oust MP Isabelle Melançon, who won her seat in 2018 by a comfortable margin of nearly 5,600 votes.
Québec Solidaire also believes it can wrest horseback riding from liberals. It is also the leader of the party, Alejandra Zaga Mendez, who will defend the colors of her party.
CAQ’s Denis Lamothe was elected in Ungava in no time with a few dozen majority votes.
Québec Solidaire wants to bring horseback riding, which essentially covers North du Quebec, close to him. The party is represented by Maïtée Labrecque-Saganash, an indigenous rights activist and daughter of former MP Romeo Saganash.
The Quebec Liberal Party, which came second in 2018, elected former Kuujjuaq Mayor Tunu Napartuk to rally voters.
This story was written for the News by Frédéric Lacroix-Couture with financial support from the Bourses de Meta and The Canadian Press.
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