Since the defeat of the Conservative Party of Canada in the September 2021 federal election, major disagreements have been voiced within the Conservative family on several issues. The bitter tone of the leadership debates over the past two weeks is probably not the cause, but rather the consequence of these deep divisions.

A new survey by EKOS reveals many points of contention between the various factions of the party. He suddenly tells us that coexistence of these different camps will be extremely difficult after the race.

First, the pollster collected respondents’ preferences for the conservative leadership. Among the entire sample of the poll, former Quebec Premier Jean Charest (24%) and Federal MP for carltonPierre Poilievre (22%), lead statistically with the same number of points.

Former Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader and current Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown is third with 11% support, while the member for Haldimand Norfolk (in Ontario), Leslyn Lewis, reaps 5%.

Of course, these numbers reflect the preferences of the Canadian electorate as a whole and are in no way a reflection of Conservative Party members’ mood. And they will be the ones to choose the next leader, not the other Canadians.

The results of the poll, broken down by voting intentions, show a stark contrast: among respondents who intend to support the CPC if a vote were held this week, Pierre Poilievre climbs far and alone to the top with no less than 57% of support Top spot, a stunning 43-point lead over his rival Jean Charest, leaving the other contenders crumbs.

It is voters from the other parties who favor Jean Charest as Conservative leader. This suggests that the former Quebec premier is fighting for the leadership of a party that no longer exists, the Progressive Conservative Party of the last century. Furthermore, among Liberal voters, Jean Charest is the choice of 42% of respondents, versus a meager 3% for Poilievre. The latter, on the other hand, is by far the favorite of voters in Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party.

The election of the CCP’s next leader will thus show who will be the target voters to broaden the conservative base: will we target the blue liberals or the purple conservatives?

In fact, several data from the EKOS poll show that the positions of Poilievre’s voters are closer to those of his party’s current voters, but also to those promoted by Maxime Bernier and the PPC. Among many examples is the perception of the truck rally that paralyzed downtown Ottawa this winter — a topic that protracted during the first May 5 leaders’ debate. Jean Charest was also widely booed when he claimed that Poilievre supported an illegal demonstration.

Among those who support Poilievre, 51% support the trucker movement compared to just 22% who oppose it. Among those who would vote for Jean Charest, 85% oppose the movement versus 9% who support it.

On the thorny issue of abortion rights, 70% of Canadians say they are pro-choice compared to 19% who say they are pro-life. However, Conservative (31%) and People’s Party (46%) voters have the largest proportions of voters against women’s free elections. While 32% of those who support Poilievre are against abortion (43% of Leslyn Lewis supporters), only 13% of those who would like to see Jean Charest at the head of the CCP are pro-life.

We also see significant polarization when it comes to firearms. When asked “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I believe there should be a strict ban on firearms in urban areas”, 68% of respondents answered yes, while 29% said the opposite. Among CCP voters, 55% disagree.

Among the supporters of Pierre Poilivre? This proportion increases to 63%.

It is no exaggeration, therefore, to say that the very essence of the Conservative Party is at stake in this race. And the data we have shows that a high proportion of CCP voters seem to want their “poilievre moment.” The member’s lead for Carleton is such that he might even hope for a first-round win (the CPC uses a preferential vote for lead races).

Unless Charest, Brown and Lewis break membership card sales records by the June 3 deadline? We will know soon.