GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS. Since 1945, the downgrade of the US and the West has been incorrectly predicted several times. In the 1950s, the former USSR had to “bury” capitalism. In the 1980s, analysts claimed that Japan’s economy would one day surpass that of the United States. In the 2010s, the mantra was that China would become the leading economic power. Today it is the BRICS-Plus countries that are destined to reshape the international order.

The BRICS countries, founded in 2009, include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which joined in 2010. In August, six more countries agreed – Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia and Iran join the BRICS countries by 2024hence the expression BRICS Plus.

However, caution is advised when making such a forecast for BRICS Plus in order not to succumb to the geopolitical “flair of the month”, as analysts have often been wrong in the past:

• Not only that the former Soviet Union and communism are not “ However, “buried” capitalism (as leader Nikita Khrushchev said in 1956) collapsed at the turn of the 1990s – at least in Europe, for communism.

• The Japanese economy has never surpassed the American one. Since the bursting of Japan’s real estate bubble in 1990, the Japanese economy has been stagnant or relatively slow, or a shadow of its former self.

• Firms like Goldman Sachs, which claimed that China would overtake the US to become the leading economic power in the 2020s, are now pushing back that deadline. And some firms like Capital Economics even say that this will never happen because China has too many problems.

Of course, an inadequate assessment of the situation regarding BRICS Plus has no real impact on Canadian companies operating in international markets in the short and medium term.

On the other hand, overestimating the impact of BRICS expansion on the economy and international relations can potentially lead to wrong decisions in the long term, for example over a period of 10 to 25 years.

For example, turning its back on some promising markets in the Indo-Pacific on the grounds that the expected rise of BRICS Plus will lead to a decline in democracy and the rule of law in certain regions of the world.

Half the population, a third of the GDP

The aim of BRICS Plus is to give the Global South – a diverse collection of non-aligned countries – a stronger voice and thereby exert greater influence on the world stage, which is still dominated by the United States and the West. In short, to help create a new multipolar international order in which Westerners would only be involved in “governing” the world.

It is difficult to oppose this principle of more collegial governance of the world as long as it does not lead to a decline in human rights and democracy on the planet.

One thing is certain: the BRICS Plus member countries have considerable weight on the international stage.

Integrating Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia and Iran, the group will host 46% of the world’s population and also account for just over a third of the world’s GDP, the French daily reports The world.

To put things into perspective, what we call the West (basically Canada, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Australia and New Zealand) makes up about 10% of the world population, but about half of the world’s GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

In short, BRICS Plus has demographic weight while the West has economic weight.

The structural weaknesses of BRICS Plus

As influential as they are, the BRICS countries do not have – at least for now – the coherence that Western countries can have thanks to the organizations and treaties that bind them together and guarantee power and influence.

The British Magazine The News Statesman gives some examples.

• BRICS Plus does not have a regional free trade agreement like thisAgreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico (CUSMA).

• BRICS Plus does not have a military alliance like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

One might add that Western countries also have the characteristic of being liberal democracies, where the rule of law and freedom of the press are usually the norm.

However, there may be exceptions in countries like Poland or Hungary, two EU member states governed by a radical and illiberal right.

On the other hand, the BRICS Plus countries do not exhibit such political and cultural coherence.

For example, India, Brazil and Argentina, as well as South Africa, are democracies, while the other countries are either authoritarian regimes or dictatorships.

Within the boundaries of BRICS Plus, there is another factor to consider: China’s population decline will ultimately increasingly weaken its economic potential and thus its political and military influence.

However, China is considered the leader of the group.

China’s population will shrink by hundreds of millions by the year 2100, according to two Chinese organizations. (Photo: Getty Images)

China’s population will shrink in the 21st century

What is little known is that China’s population of 1.4 billion people began shrinking in 2022.

Here are two predictions that give a sense of the extent of this phenomenon.

The United Nations (UN) expects China’s population to decline to 767 million by 2100. For its part, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicts a more critical scenario, with a decline to 587 million.

On the other hand, according to the UN, the United States will have a population of 394 million in 2100 (332 million today).

Finally, we must consider two final elements to understand that BRICS Plus is not on the verge of downgrading the United States and the West in the foreseeable future.

On the one hand, India, the world’s other economic and population giant, is not hostile to the West, even if, for example, this country takes a neutral position with regard to the conflict in Ukraine – it even buys Russian oil.

Notably, India is part of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), an alliance between the United States, India, Japan and Australia. The organization, founded in 2007, aims to contain the rise of China to ensure the stability of the Indo-Pacific, a vast region that includes the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Whoever controls the oceans controls the world

On the other hand, the United States – an economic, political, cultural, technological, military and demographic power – controls the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, particularly through its allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. , including South Korea, Japan, Australia and India.

However, the power that controls these two oceans can control the international economy, points out George Friedman, the author of 100 years ahead: a scenario for the 21st century (ZLD Éditions, 2013) and founder of the geopolitical analysis and business intelligence company Stratfor.

The rise of BRICS Plus will be a trend that will structure our century on a geopolitical level.

The West must learn to share more power and influence in the world in order to take greater account of the diversity of humanity.

And we repeat, this is a good thing.

However, analysts who predict or want a downgrade of the US and other Western countries on the world stage are running into disillusionment.

The West is likely to remain the world’s most important center of power and influence for a long time to come.