After eight years in power, Justin Trudeau’s government is showing signs of running out of steam. However, the by-elections in Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec did not show that the Conservatives were capable of winning a general election.

Like the parliamentary session, last Monday’s results reveal two observations: the positive polls for the Conservatives nationally are not reflected in election results and the issue of foreign interference does not appear to be affecting the Liberal vote for the time being.

Mistake

Throughout the session we were confronted with a number of government errors. In addition to the saga of Chinese interference, which is likely to end in a public inquiry, let’s remember the appointment of Amira Elgawaby as Canada’s special envoy for the fight against Islamophobia, the mess in the firearms file or even the reaction from the ministers of public affairs Security regarding the rendition of notorious killer Paul Bernardo.

These failures cast a shadow over an overall positive session report: Closing Roxham Road, increasing health transfers, dealing with the war in Ukraine, a new Volkswagen plant in Ontario and GM in Quebec, Canada will fly to the moon with NASA, a bill to stand up to the giants of the internet and a new policy to change the culture in the sports sector.

Opposition parties are not ready

Meanwhile, opposition parties appear unable to capitalize on the Trudeau government’s mistakes. The results of the last by-elections indicate that neither the NDP nor the Conservative Party are ready to take part in general elections.

Despite positive national polls, Pierre Poilièvre has yet to show any tangible results. During the June 19 by-election, support for Poilièvre’s troops dwindled. Major elections like Oxford, a Conservative stronghold, and Winnipeg South Centre, a campaign won by Stephen Harper in 2011, do not point to a Conservative victory in the forthcoming election.

For its part, the NDP is struggling to reap the benefits of its proposals, such as dental insurance, which were pushed through thanks in particular to the deal with the Liberals. We also saw that some of the New Democrat vote went to the Liberals. A phenomenon that is likely to be explained by fears that the new Conservative leader could evoke more left-wing voters than the Liberal party’s performance.

With the start of BBQ season for MPs, we wish Justin Trudeau the summer can have the desired impact, particularly by clearing the files of Chinese interference and a possible public inquiry before he returns to Ottawa in September.

Jeremy Ghio, Director at TACT and former Advisor to Canada’s Treasury Secretary and Canada’s Secretary of Economic Development

Photo courtesy of TACT

Catherine Loiacano, Director at TACT and former Advisor to the Canadian Treasury Secretary and the Canadian Minister for Science and Sport