Yan Plante is Vice President of PR agency TACT. He is a former Conservative strategist who advised former Prime Minister Stephen Harper on three elections. With almost 15 years of experience in politics, he was also chief of staff to former Minister Denis Lebel.

Many questioned Danielle Smith’s ability to win an Alberta election. The leader of the United Conservative Party proved everyone wrong on Monday, while confirming with her victory that Alberta remains the heart of the Canadian conservative movement.

The Blues have ruled there for decades – except when internal squabbles have split them into different parties. This allowed the NDP to sneak in in 2015, and then Rachel Notley to form a first New Democratic government in that province. But much like when pollsters tell us their poll would be valid 19 times out of 20, the Notley government was that anomaly…

So here is a first election win for Danielle Smith, replacing her predecessor Jason Kenney, who was forced to resign because her party felt Stephen Harper’s former federal minister was no longer “conservative” enough (too many sanitation measures for some liking during the pandemic). . Moreover, it was an amazing political ending for someone who had embodied principled conservatism for several years…

In fact, the formation of M^Me Smith won fewer seats than Jason Kenney in previous elections: the latter had gained 38 seats for 62 MPs in 2019, while Danielle Smith finished with a result of 49, 5 above the majority.

But a win is a win, and even more so when he’s in the majority. The Smith administration will thus have both hands on the steering wheel. This result will have some significance at the federal level.

For the federal conservatives, this victory is interpreted as confirmation that the populist approach works, no matter what the commentators say. Both Doug Ford in Ontario and Danielle Smith in Alberta use this dichotomy between the people and the elite to mobilize their constituencies – with success. With the federal conservative faction largely focused on Ontario and the Prairies, Monday’s results in Alberta are bound to inform internal discussions about the recipe for success.

Pierre Poilievre can also conclude that economic issues are what most worries voters and motivates them to vote at the moment. This observation is not new, but is supported by the vote in Alberta.

If you wanted Pierre Poilievre to change his mind soon, you will be disappointed. The results of the polls in Ontario and Alberta will only confirm his approach and we can expect that he will continue to go full throttle as he has come to expect from us.

Danielle Smith’s election will make Justin Trudeau’s life difficult. Alberta’s Prime Minister warned her gravely in her victory speech, saying she could not and would not allow the federal government’s energy policies to harm the economy and workers in his province. The implication is that she will not hesitate to use any legal and political means at her disposal to block or delay Ottawa’s ambitions.

But it is also possible that the Federal Prime Minister will find a positive side in Mr.^Me Smith is responsible for Alberta and not Rachel Notley. It is useful to have positions that are very different from those of some political opponents, including those from the provinces. And with Alberta not the most fertile ground for the Liberals, Justin Trudeau will be able to use his differences with Danielle Smith to mobilize his constituency in the other provinces – Canadians who want a real energy transition away from the influence of the oil and gas industries .

Still, Justin Trudeau must play this card with caution as he seeks a fourth term. In Canada there is only one Liberal provincial prime minister, Andrew Furey of Newfoundland and Labrador. Regular disputes with the prime ministers of the provinces would therefore not make sense. This could serve as the argument for Jagmeet Singh and Pierre Poilievre, who will propose change in Ottawa – and may promise better relations with the provinces.

It will also be interesting to see what the future holds for NDP leader Rachel Notley. She was Prime Minister of Alberta from 2015 to 2019 and has since been leader of the opposition. It would be surprising if she stayed in that position for an entire election cycle.

Many in Alberta believe that she is valued by the people and that she has her party at her feet rather than some kind of ball and chain. One wonders if Justin Trudeau won’t be tempted to offer him a role as Canada’s ambassador abroad. There is a similar precedent: Stephen Harper has already appointed Gary Doer, former NDP Prime Minister of Manitoba, as Ambassador to the United States. In this way, Justin Trudeau could also keep Rachel Notley from participating in a potential race for leadership of the state’s New Democrats…