GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shook the post-war international order, already contested by Russia and China. Nothing will ever be the same again. A new multipolar international order is emerging that will force states to adapt, but also Western companies active in all corners of the world.

This emerges from reading a major essay on international relations, GWar in Ukraine and New World Order (published by Éditions de l’Observatoire, February 2023) and the interview given Offers by former French Ambassador Michel Duclos, who directed this collaborative effort that caused a stir in Europe.

And with good reason: it brings together the views of 22 geopolitical experts from diverse backgrounds and from most regions of the world, from the United States to the Netherlands, Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria, India, China, Russia and Ukraine .

The diversity of all these points of view offers a unique perspective to those interested in the future and stability of the world – even if some views are confrontational for most Westerners.

Michel Duclos is Special Adviser to the Institut Montaigne (a French think tank that helped publish this paper) and one of the most influential analysts on international issues in France and Europe. In particular, he published France in the upheavals of the world (2021, Editions de l’Observatoire).

The de-Westernization of the world

A strong expression emerges from War in Ukraine and New World Order: We are currently experiencing an acceleration of the “de-Westernization of the world”. This expression has been used by Michel Duclos in the many interviews he has given since the book was published.

A passage from the preface, which he signs, sums up the challenge facing the West well.

“The conflict in Ukraine may mark the end of the illusion of a liberal world order, i.e. one dominated by Western powers. The latter will not have prevented the return of war to the most peaceful continent on the world geopolitical map,” he wrote.

The de-Westernization of the world does not mean the demise of the West.

Rather, it means the emergence of a new international order in which countries like China, India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa will have a greater say in how the world is organized, not to mention other countries in the so-called Global South.

In short, the West will always be a major player on the geopolitical chessboard (political, economic, technological, cultural and military), but there will be others.

So in less than 100 years we will have experienced three geopolitical paradigms:

• A bipolar world during the Cold War (1945-1991) that pitted the United States against the former Soviet Union until its dissolution.

• A unipolar world After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it has been dominated by the USA to this day.

• A multipolar worldthe first steps of which future historians will no doubt mark since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022.

Company in a divided world

In conversation with Offers, Michel Duclos points out that the lives of Western and Canadian companies will also be affected by this de-Westernization of the world. “We are indeed moving towards a divided world,” he claims.

He points out that there will be, for example, “Multiple Internets”, i.e. several parallel systems, in contrast to the global Internet, which currently connects computer networks around the world.

In his view, supply chains will also correspond more to “geopolitical than economic” criteria.

The trade war between the United States and China began under the Republican administration of Donald Trump but intensified under that of Democrat Joe Biden. (Photo: 123RF)

We can already see this in the semiconductor war between the United States and China, for example, as Angelo Katsoras, geopolitical analyst at the National Bank, pointed out in a recent note.

Michel Duclos also points out that Western companies will thrive in an “uncertain and arbitrary” business environment as we witness a hardening of authoritarian regimes around the world.

“It is becoming more difficult for companies, and the brutal competition between America and Europe, as we saw with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), must also be taken into account,” emphasizes the specialist in international relations.

The IRA is the flagship legislature of the Joe Biden administration. The goal is to boost the American economy by promoting the manufacturing of finished products and their components in the United States, especially batteries for electric cars.

If things are going to change for international companies, others shouldn’t change for the foreseeable future, Michel Duclos warns.

This applies in particular to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the guardian of the fair and just functioning of international trade based in Switzerland.

With the gradual establishment of a new international order, one might think that the rise of China would complicate the settlement of trade disputes at the WTO – which has been struggling for a number of years. .

However, his current setbacks depend largely on the Americans.

“Right now, the difficulties of the WTO are not coming from China or the countries of the South, but … from the United States. The Biden administration has followed the Trump administration’s practice of blocking appellate body appointments. This paralyzes the entire dispute resolution system,” says the consultant at the Institut Montaigne.

Technological standards remain western

International technology standards – mostly American and European – are another area where the influence of China and other large emerging countries can still be felt.

“Oddly enough, Westerners continue to dominate here. On paper, China applies for many patents, but few are used outside of China,” he points out.

On the other hand, the Chinese are exerting a growing influence on the level of 5G in telecommunications. This situation could even cause “a strategic break” because this technology outweighs the Americans and the Europeans, believes Michel Duclos.

The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a shock wave whose long-term geopolitical consequences are still poorly understood.

The reading of War in Ukraine and New World Order makes it possible to perceive some political positions on this conflict and a “spectacular distancing of the global South” from the West, emphasizes Michel Duclos in an interview.

What brings these divergent positions together is resentment against the West, a desire to challenge the liberal international order dominated by the United States and its allies, and a recognition that the West, economically or otherwise, is no longer strong enough to get its way about countries that are said to be close to him.”

In his eyes, this is the reason why the war in Ukraine “holds up to us the mirror of the de-Westernization of the world”.

Certainly we are witnessing a profound transformation of the world.

On the other hand, this transformation of the world still has its limits, he says, because the actual functioning of the world economy is still heavily influenced by the West.