Since there have been no elections since 2016, the term of office of the last 10 elected senators ended at the beginning of the year. As a result, there is currently no longer an elected representative in Haiti. It’s a political vacuum that makes you dizzy.
To say that there is great urgency for a national consensus to be formed within Haitian society is an understatement. Six months ago, in this section, I gave my opinion on the disappointingly slow pace of negotiations between representatives of civil society and the private sector and Prime Minister-elect Ariel Henry1. This consensus is still pending. And what has happened since then?
Prime Minister-elect Henry met the UN Secretary-General to discuss an international intervention force. On the Canadian side, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met our Caribbean partners at the United Nations in September to update them on the situation. Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly met her American counterpart Antony Blinken in Montreal in October. The latter formally asked Canada to take command of this multinational force, whose mandate has yet to be defined.
Canada will not commit until a formal agreement has been reached between the various political actors. On the other hand, Canada has made concrete moves.
He delivered equipment to Haiti to build the capacity of the Haitian National Police (PNH). Thanks to this help, the PNH took over the Varreux oil terminal and allowed the population of the capital to regain some normalcy. A new delivery of material recently took place. Also in October, Canada sanctioned well-known figures, including former President Michel Martelly and two former prime ministers: a powerful gesture that is beginning to have an impact.
It is no coincidence that violent protests and kidnappings have declined over the past two months. We recently sanctioned other Haitian figures. Two Canadian delegations have traveled to Port-au-Prince in recent months to help unlock the negotiations. At the “Tres Amigos” (Biden-Trudeau-López Obrador) summit, Haiti was on the agenda, an important signal of the seriousness of the situation.
But let’s be honest. These are not what will bring stability to Haiti, but they are concrete gestures as we wait to see where negotiations between what remains of the Haitian government and representatives of civil society will end.
Where are we now?
Maybe a glimmer on the horizon. A High Council of Transition (HCT) was set up on 31 December, attended by Prime Minister Henry and some civil society representatives. This is certainly a positive first step, but we are a long way from the consensus we should expect. At its head, the HCT consists of only three members. It must be broader and consensual. Despite this tentative progress, mistrust persists.
Prime Minister Henry is so controversial that he is not trusted. Although he currently has the support of the international community, that support must have limits.
For their part, Canada and the United States must demand more openness, particularly towards political parties. The HCT’s mandate is too broad: revise the constitution, reform the Court of Cassation and set up a provisional electoral council. It’s a gigantic task. In terms of timing, holding elections for the presidency, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies simultaneously in the Haitian context as early as December 2023 is unrealistic. I know about this because, as Ambassador to Canada, I have closely followed two election campaigns.
When the HCT takes shape, with broad support from civil society, all stakeholders must formally commit to respecting its conclusions. The international community should provide support and advice as needed, nothing more. That the Haitians take their responsibility. The same international community will then have to make a clear and substantial commitment. Organizing three-stage elections will require tens of millions of dollars and significant human resources. Expectations are high, but patience and perseverance are required.
In my opinion, elections are possible in 18 to 24 months at the earliest, if the HCT can give up its mandate by next December. It’s time to bring some security back to Port-au-Prince and the rest of the country.
After 18 months of bickering, it’s time for something constructive to happen. As we argue in the capital, the 10 million Haitians are just asking for a little security, access to health, education and a decent job. Our former governor-general, Michaëlle Jean, recently gave her opinion2, saying that time is running out and the country needs a united front. On this point I totally agree with him.
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