Canada’s economy is already bearing the brunt of climate change, warns another study, this time by Parliament’s budget officer in Ottawa. But if the trend continues, that bill will be at least eight times higher by the end of the century.

Last year, the average temperature in Canada rose nearly 1 degree Celsius (0.9 C) from normal levels observed from 1961 to 1990, while rainfall was 2.5% higher, Tuesday reported. the PBO in an analysis of about forty pages. The impact of these changes on agricultural production, economic productivity, human health, infrastructure, energy consumption or climate-dependent activities resulted in a 0.8% reduction in gross domestic product (GDP), a loss equivalent to almost US$20 -Dollar billion.

Even if all governments on the planet kept their previous reduction promises Greenhouse gases (GHG), the average temperature in Canada would continue to rise by 0.7°C by 2050, almost doubling by the end of the century. Instead of a 0.8% GDP contraction, Canada’s economy would then show a 2.4% contraction in 2050 and 5.8% in 2100.

The economic fallout promises to get worse if we don’t trust countries’ pledges and only consider GHG mitigation actions they have actually implemented or are in the process of implementing. In this case, Canada’s average temperature would increase by another 2.3°C by the end of the century and economic losses would be at least eight times (6.6%) higher than they already are.

Those estimates remain incomplete, the PBO warns, because they don’t fully account for several complicating factors. For example, the transition costs associated with the transition to a lower-carbon economy were not estimated there, nor were the more serious impacts that climate change could have on the global economy, the damage caused by the increase in extreme weather events or global warming, which is in the Canadian Arctic will be much more pronounced.

And then, of course, climate change will not only have economic effects, the PBO continues. In particular, it will also have “many impacts on health, well-being, nature and ecosystems”.

The analysis of PBO comes exactly like this United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt. It adds to a long list of studies on the economic impacts of climate change, including in Canada. early this fall a study by the Climate Institute of Canada estimated that half of the benefits of economic growth will soon go to repairing the damage caused by climate change. After that, the situation will deteriorate rapidly, it said, if it is not possible to slow down global warming, but also to make the necessary efforts to adapt to it.

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