The decline in Quebec’s demographic weight within Canada is inevitable. It will only get worse over time. This is likely to be accompanied by a loss of political weight, which, however, should not be taken for granted. Indeed, there have often been historical occasions when Quebec has a stronger voice than Canada’s demographics as a whole would have predicted or authorized a priori.

Quebec’s demographic decline within the Canadian Loan is inevitably reflected in its representation in the House of Commons. For example, the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada has proposed that Quebec lose a seat at the next redraw, reducing the total number of seats in the House of Commons from 338 to 342. Justin Trudeau’s government appears inclined to retain Quebec’s current 78 seats. For its part, the Bloc Québécois has just allowed the House of Commons to pass a motion requiring elected officials to reject any scenario of a federal electoral map redesign that would involve the loss of one or more constituencies in Quebec or a reduction in its weight within the Canadian federation. The motion in question also proposes the introduction of a new seat allocation formula and calls on the Canadian government to act accordingly.

What the bloc has in mind when it talks about “a new formula” is to guarantee that Quebec’s representation in the lower house will never fall below the 25% seat floor. However, granting it to Quebec would require a formal constitutional amendment, implemented under the 7/50 process. Certainly, this could not be achieved by the Canadian Parliament acting unilaterally and passing a single piece of legislation.

Significant limit

Indeed, in Canada, the principle of proportional representation in the House of Commons is firmly enshrined in the Constitution. It is not applied rigorously, but it nonetheless represents a significant limitation on federal agencies’ ability to “arrive” Quebec in terms of its representation in the Canadian Parliament. In other words, you can certainly get away from proportional representation by a seat or a few, but you can’t go much further. In that sense, we certainly cannot guarantee Quebec 25% of the seats unless we comply with the constitutional amendment process as such.

The only exception to the principle of proportional representation provided for in the Canadian Constitution is to protect very sparsely populated provinces such as Canada. B. Prince Edward Island. This exception means that such provinces may be entitled to a number of deputies at least equal to the number of senators they represent. This exception does not help in Quebec, at least for the time being. In fact, it has 24 senators.

Without a formal constitutional change, Quebec’s relative weight in the lower house of Canada will continue to decline in the future. It’s a very sad prospect, one must admit.

Slow decrease

In 1992, the Charlottetown Agreement assured Robert Bourassa that Quebec would retain 25% of the House of Commons. In return, he had accepted a softening of the “Distinct Society Clause”, the reform of the Senate desired by the western provinces and the creation of a third order of government for the indigenous people. The fact remains that Robert Bourassa’s win was sizeable. In addition, this profit was underestimated at the time.

Anyway, coming back to the Bloc Québécois motion we talked about above, it should be noted that the fact that it has been accepted so far by federal lawmakers shows a concern that is becoming increasingly evident on their part – or at least a certain number of them – in view of the progressive decline of Quebec in Canada.

In the context in which Quebec is the custodian of federalism across Canada, there is reason to question whether the gradual and constant loss of its demographic weight within Canada does not bode well for a more pronounced centralization of the Canadian regime. In other words, is Canada gradually losing that ardent defender of the federal principle, federal balance and federal spirit that is Quebec? Is Canada itself in the process of wiping out, perhaps unknowingly, that important carrier and vector of identity, Quebec? When are we going to understand that constitutional reform is finally needed that supports Quebec’s aspirations and affects, among other things, its representation in the House of Commons, if only to rebalance the balance of power between the political entities that make up this country define? ?

To see in the video