In an interview on radio station 98.5 on Wednesday, M^Me Joly explained that due to the close ties between Canada and the United States, Ottawa “needs to work on multiple scenarios.”

The minister acknowledges that Canada has a plan in mind but doesn’t elaborate, other than to say that “no matter what the election results” in the United States, she will work with other levels of government and the business community and unions.

M^Me Joly drew a comparison to his administration’s experience with former US President Donald Trump’s administration, which had attempted to restrict long-established trade in key sectors.

Mr. Trump is again a candidate for the Republican nomination ahead of the November 2024 election and has previously threatened “retaliation” against his opponents and government officials.

The US Embassy in Ottawa declined to comment on Minister Joly’s comments.

“We in the Trudeau administration have already led a Trump administration, so we have experience,” Minister Joly assured.

Thomas Juneau, a professor of national security at the University of Ottawa, believes that for many Canadians to say that the United States is radically out of step with Canada may be an overstatement.

But in recent years there has been an extreme increase in volatility worldwide, he admitted in an interview on Thursday. “What were extremely far-fetched scenarios maybe ten years ago are no longer impossible,” he believes.

Professor Juneau warns Canada could face political refugees, economic protectionism in one of the world’s most important trade links and shock over Ottawa’s dependence on the United States for intelligence sharing and scientific collaboration. Not to mention missile defense and military protection.

“If the increasingly authoritarian United States becomes ever more unilateral, flouting traditional alliances like NATO or agreements like Norad, how would that harm our national security? asks Mr. Juneau.

He also cites possible American intervention in Canadian democratic processes. Far-right politicians in the US had already expressed their support for the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests.

At the time, both Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is now running against Mr. Trump for the Republican nomination, both criticized attempts to block Americans from making donations to Canadian protesters.

In September 2021, the Liberals pledged to launch a “Canadian Center for Global Democracy” to support like-minded countries at a time of rising authoritarianism, but the project has yet to get started.

Professor Juneau has never heard of other countries publicly claiming they have contingency plans in case the United States takes an authoritarian course. “This is a very sensitive issue for any Democratic ally of the United States,” he admitted. I suspect any ally would want to be very, very quiet on this. »

In general, Canada’s allies have focused their language on the risks of a US withdrawal from the international arena.

French Ambassador to Canada Michel Miraillet said last April that closer ties between Ottawa and Europe could protect these two partners from American withdrawal or annihilation on the international stage.

Speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations in Montreal, the French ambassador recalled the decision of Barack Obama’s democratic government not to intervene in Syria and the timidity of the American response during Russia’s takeover of Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014 and the chaotic withdrawal of the American military from Afghanistan.